October 2026 Regional Phoenix Monthly Housing Report
Updated: 3 days ago
NOTE: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a .25% increase in the prime lending rate on September 16th. The next rate announcement is Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, with a press conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m.
This report covers the entire Phoenix Metropolitan Area in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. The other areas of the state, such as Tucson, Flagstaff, Sedona, Payson, etc. are not included.
This report is compiled monthly with data taken from the Arizona Regional MLS and compares short-term performance and longer-term performance. My reports are factual, and any opinions are stated as mine.
In my opinion, we're still in a fairly strong buyer's market because:
Total home sales have never recovered from the interest-rate-induced market drop in 2022. Sales have been much lower for the last 4-years and are not showing signs of a significant rebound in 2026.
Inventory is hovering at 7-year highs.
There has been a -$16,867 gap between the average listing and sale prices for all sold homes in the previous 12-months. It was -$15,388 in September.
There are currently 4.3 times more sellers than buyers. The facts: 22,684 listings to start October divided by 5,239 sales in September. This number is up from 4.0 in September and 3.47 in July and 3.11 in June.
Home Sales
There were 5,239 home sales in September. They were:
+202 more than August (+4%)
-350 less than September 2025 (-6.3%)
93% of the 3-year, monthly average sales of 5,662 (from 2023 - 2025)
To see a longer term history, click on my Monthly Sales Chart.
As a point of reference, monthly home sales averaged 8,641 in the "24 -months before" interest rates started increasing in March of 2022. Total home sales in the years of 2023 - 2025 averaged just 68,091 (5,674 per-month). The housing industry desperately needs further reductions in mortgage rates to stimulate sales.
In case you're wondering, here are the top five sales years in our history:
104,968 in 2021
104,133 in 2005
100,678 in 2011
100,493 in 2020
99,383 in 2019
Inventory
October 2026 began with 22,684 listings. These listings are:
+2,481 more than August (+12.3%)
+1,400 more than the 21,284 listings from October of 2025 (+6.6%)
136% of the 3-year average listings of 16,649 (2023-2025)
Distressed property listings (bank owned homes, auctions, and short sales) are on the rise. October 2026 started with 495 distressed listings compared to the 266 from September 2025 (+86%). A discussion of distressed sales is later in this report.
View my longer-term chart for Housing Inventory.
As a point of reference, monthly home listings averaged 5,093 in the "12-months before" interest rates started increasing in March of 2022.
Higher inventory remains in the favor of buyers who have more choices. Buyers also have more opportunity to negotiate lower prices and obtain seller concessions.
Price-Per Square Foot (PPSF)
PPSF historically peaks in late Spring. At $292.27 in September, PPSF is:
+$1.10 more than August
+$4.78 more than September 2025
98% of the $297.57 PPSF average for all of 2025
Price-per square foot is an ideal measurement of home values because it takes into consideration the size of sold homes. Median price does not.
Click here for a longer-term Price History Chart.
NOTE: prices vary by neighborhood, so this overall average should not be used for any specific home. Contact me if you want information on your home's value.
Month | Price-Per Square Foot | Median Price |
|---|---|---|
September '26 | $292.27 | $451,000 |
August '26 | $291.17 | $450,000 |
July '26 | $296.78 | $450,500 |
June '26 | $303.80 | $459,000 |
May '26 | $306.03 | $465,000 |
April '26 | $303.86 | $450,000 |
List vs Sales Price
This is an interesting category you may not find any other place. It's a really good indicator of market conditions. In a seller's market, homes will sell for more than list/asking price. Conversely, homes will sell for less than list/asking price in a buyer's market.
As a point of reference, the average home sold for +$10,100 more than list price in April '22 when we were still in a seller's market and before the effect of increased mortgage rates.
This table shows the price range of "$300K - $600K" and "All Sales." I wanted to show both because the range of "$300K - $600K" generally accounts for 60% of all sales. It's a contrast to all sales within the Greater Phoenix Area.
+/- Difference Between List & Sales Price
Month | $300K - $600K | All Sales |
|---|---|---|
Sept '26 | -$6,518 | -$15,388 |
Aug '26 | -$5,714 | -$16,192 |
Jul '26 | -$6,398 | -$16,507 |
Jun '26 | -$6,365 | -$17,695 |
May '26 | -$6,387 | -$18,118 |
Apr '26 | -$6,296 | -$15,292 |
Mar '26 | -$6,486 | -$18,002 |
Feb '26 | -$7,464 | -$17,769 |
Jan '26 | -$7,881 | -$18,066 |
Dec '25 | -$6,955 | -$17,355 |
Nov '25 | -$6,498 | -$15,540 |
Oct '25 | -$6,952 | -$15,733 |
Sep '25 | -$6,524 | -$15,593 |
Aug '25 | -$7,127 | -$15,924 |
Jul '25 | -$6,994 | -$16,218 |
Jun '25 | -$6,420 | -$18,092 |
May '25 | -$6,162 | -$14,926 |
Apr '25 | -$5,938 | -$14,718 |
Mar '25 | -$6,226 | -$15,778 |
Feb '25 | -$6,587 | -$14,821 |
Jan '25 | -$7,342 | -$18,092 |
Dec '24 | -$6,737 | -$16,731 |
Nov '24 | -$5,399 | -$12,544 |
Oct '24 | -$5,924 | -$13,297 |
Sept '24 | -$5,880 | -$13,101 |
Aug '24 | -$5,906 | -$13,109 |
Jul '24 | -$4,988 | -$13,856 |
Jun '24 | -$5,585 | -$13,745 |
May '24 | -$5,336 | -$12,982 |
Apr '24 | -$5,163 | -$13,350 |
Mar '24 | -$5,486 | -$12,359 |
Feb '24 | -$6,163 | -$12,136 |
Jan '24 | -$7,174 | -$14,844 |
FOMC Interest Rate Changes
*** The next FOMC rate announcement is Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, with a press conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m.***
The dramatic change from a seller's market to a buyer's market began when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a division of the Federal Reserve that sets monetary policy, started increasing the prime lending rate to combat inflation. Financial institutions add a margin to the prime rate to set the final interest rate for all loan products, including mortgages.
To date there have been 12 rate increases and 6 decreases. The net affect is a 3.75% increase in the prime rate over a 53-month time span. As a result, mortgage rates reached as high as 7.22% in 2024 and 6.95% in 2025.
I personally feel a reduction in actual mortgage rates to a range of 5.0 - 5.5% by the end of 2026 would be a win for consumers. It would allow more buyers into the market and create opportunities to refinance higher rate mortgage loans.
Here is the history:
+.25% in March '22
+.50% in May '22(which was the largest since 2000)
+.75% in June '22 (the largest increase since 1994)
+.75% in July '22
+75% in September '22
+.75% in November '22
+.50% in December '22
+.25% in February '23
+.25% in March '23
+.25% in May '23
+.25% in July '23
-.50% in September '24
-.25% in November '24
-.25% in December '24
.-25% in September 2025
-.25% in October 2025
-.25% in December 2025
+.25% in September '26
Days on Market
It took 79 days to sell a home in September.
Days on Market (DOM) is another indicator of where the market stands. Low days to sale generally happen in a seller's market and higher days generally happen in a buyer's market. We were in a seller's market before the interest rate increases, and it took about 30-days from listing a home to when it closed escrow. Access my longer term chart for Days on Market.
DOM is hovering at the highest average in 10-years.
Month | Days to Sale |
|---|---|
September '26 | 79 |
August '26 | 80 |
July '26 | 78 |
June '26 | 78 |
May '26 | 76 |
Apr '26 | 76 |
Distressed Properties
There were 85 distressed property sales in September. I define distressed properties as bank owned homes, auctions, and short sales. They disappear when mortgage companies maintain strict lending policies, don't provide borrowers with risky loans, and homeowners make enough money to pay their mortgages.
Distressed properties have been a non-factor for a long time. Click here for my longer-term chart on Distressed Sales. Here are some quick facts about distressed properties:
they peaked in March of 2009 at 75.9% of total sales
went under 50% of total sales in March 2012
went under 25% of total sales in April 2013
went under 10% in February 2015
have stayed under 1% since February 2020 until recently when they've averaged between 1-2 % in 2026.
The 85 distressed property sales in September 2026 are:
-12 less than August
+44 more than last September 2025
337% of the 3-year, monthly average of 25 (2023-2025)
58 were bank owned / HUD / auction, 27 were short sales, and 35 short sales were canceled and NOT counted in the totals. The percentage of short sales that actually closed escrow was 43.5%.
Month | Distressed Property Sales |
|---|---|
September '26 | 85 |
August '26 | 97 |
July '26 | 83 |
June '26 | 71 |
May '25 | 93 |
April '25 | 86 |
March '26 | 72 |
Want to see how Calendar year 2025 compared to 2024? Year-Over-Year comparison.
Ron Wilczek has been tracking and writing about Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market since 2008. He's been a Realtor since 1999 and the broker of Metro Phoenix Homes since 2009. |
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