October 2025 Regional Phoenix Monthly Housing Report

NOTE: October 29th is the next scheduled announcement on the prime lending rate from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a major financial derivatives exchange, projects another .25% cut with a 94.1% certainty. It projects another 25% cut on December 10th with an 84.1% certainty. Cuts will bring buyers back into the market.

This report covers the entire Phoenix Metropolitan Area in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. The other areas of the state, such as Tucson, Flagstaff, Sedona, and etc., are not included. You can also view my city specific reports.

This report is compiled monthly with data taken from the Arizona Regional MLS and compares short-term performance as well as longer-term performance. My reports are factual, and any opinions are stated as mine.

It's my opinion we're still in a strong buyer's market based on decreasing home prices, high inventory, lower than normal home sales, and a -$15,593 gap between listing and sales prices. Details follow below.

There are currently 3.8 times more sellers than buyers. The facts: 21,284 listings to start October divided by 5,589 sales in September. As a comparison:

September - 3.9	August - 3.7	July - 3.6	June - 3.5
May - 3.4	April - 3.4	March - 4.0	February - 4.6

Statistical Categories

Home Sales

There were 5,589 home sales in September, up 202 from the 5,387 sales in August. September's sales were:

• 202 higher than August (+3.8%)

• 535 higher than the 5,054 sales in September 2024 (+10.6%)

• 93% of the 3 year average of 5,984 monthly sales (2022-2024)

To see a longer term history, click on my Monthly Sales Chart.

As a point of reference, monthly home sales averaged 8,724 in the "12-months before" interest rates started increasing in March of 2022.

The good news is sales are trending up on a year-to-year basis. However, sales will seasonally slow down through the rest of the year. The housing industry desperately needs reductions in mortgage rates to stimulate sales.

Try This Versatile Home Search

Inventory

October 2025 began with 21,284 listings. Additionally, the total rise in inventory from the start of 2025 is 3,127 homes. October's 21,284 listings are:

• +463 more the September (+2.2%)

• +3,857 more than the 17,427 listings in October 2024 (+22.1)%

• 161% of the 3-year average listings of 13,186 (2022-2024)

• Distressed property listings (bank owned homes, auctions, and short sales) are on the rise. October 2025 had 266 distressed listings compared to the 101 from October 2024 (+163%). A discussion of distressed sales is later in this report.

View my longer-term chart for Housing Inventory.

As a point of reference, monthly home listings averaged 5,093 in the "12-months before" interest rates started increasing in March of 2022.

Higher inventory remains in the favor of buyers who have more choices. Buyers also have more opportunity to negotiate lower prices and obtain seller concessions.

Price-Per Square Foot (PPSF)

PPSF dropped rebounded in September to $287.49. September's PPSF was:

• +$8.09 more than August

• +$1.77 more than September 2024

• 97% of the 2024 average price of $295.02

• Has steadily dropped from $316.66 in January

Click here for a longer-term Price History.

Price-per square foot is an ideal measurement of home values because it takes into consideration the size of sold homes. Median price does not.

NOTE: prices vary by neighborhood, so this overall average should not be used for any specific home. Contact me if you want information on your home's value.

Month	Price-Per Square Foot
September '25	$287.49
August '25	$279.40
July '25	$285.88
June '25	$296.65
May '25	$291.42
April '25	$301.14
March '25	$310.97
February '25	$313.85
January '25	$316.66
December '24	$304.82
November '24	$292.14
October '24	$291.08
September '24	$285.72
August '24	$289.18
July '24	$286.58
June '24	$296.29
May '24	$298.41

List vs Sales Price

This is an interesting category you might not find any other place. It's a really good indicator of market conditions. In a seller's market, homes will sell for more than list/asking price. Conversely, homes will sell for less than list price in a buyer's market.

As a point of reference, homes were selling for +$10,100 more than list price in April '22 when we were still in a seller's market and before the effect of increased mortgage rates.

This table shows "All Sales" and the price range of "$300K - $600K." I wanted to show both because the range of "$300K - $600K" generally accounts for 60% of all sales. It's a contrast to all sales within the Greater Phoenix Area.

+/- Difference Between List & Sales Price

Month	$300K - $600K	All Sales
Sep '25	-$6,524	-$15,593
Aug '25	-$7,127	$-15,924
Jul '25	-$6,994	-$16,218
Jun '25	-$6,420	-$18,092
May '25	-$6,162	-$14,926
Apr '25	-$5,938	-$14,718
Mar '25	-$6,226	-$15,778
Feb '25	-$6,587	-$14,821
Jan '25	-$7,342	$-18,092
Dec '24	-$6,737	-$16,731
Nov '24	-$5,399	-$12,544
Oct '24	-$5,924	-$13,297
Sept '24	-$5,880	-$13,101
Aug '24	-$5,906	-$13,109
Jul '24	-$4,988	-$13,856
Jun '24	-$5,585	-$13,745
May '24	-$5,336	-$12,982
Apr '24	-$5,163	-$13,350
Mar '24	-$5,486	-$12,359
Feb '24	-$6,163	-$12,136
Jan '24	-$7,174	-$14,844

FOMC Interest Rate Changes

*** The next FOMC rate announcement is October 29th. Lowering the prime lending rate several times this year will make a huge impact on the housing market. ***

The dramatic change from a seller's market to a buyer's market began when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a division of the Federal Reserve that sets monetary policy, increased the prime lending rate to combat inflation. Financial institutions add a margin to the prime rate and consider individual creditworthiness to set the final interest rate for all loan products, including mortgages.

To date there have been 11 rate increases and 4 decreases. The net affect is a 4.25% increase in the prime rate over a 42 month time span. As a result, mortgage rates reached as high as 7% in early 2025.

I personally feel a reduction in mortgage rates to a range of 5.0 - 5.5% in the next 6-12 months would be a win for consumers. It would allow more buyers into the market and create opportunities to refinance higher rate mortgage loans.

Here is the history:

• .25% in March '22

• .50% in May '22(which was the largest since 2000)

• .75% in June '22 (the largest increase since 1994)

• .75% in July '22

• .75% in September '22

• .75% in November '22

• .50% in December '22

• .25% in February '23

• .25% in March '23

• .25% in May '23

• .25% in July '23

• -.50% in September '24

• -.25% in November '24

• -.25% in December '24

• .-25% in September 2025

Days on Market

This is another indicator of where the market stands. Low days to sale generally happen in a seller's market and higher days generally happen in a buyer's market. We were in a seller's market before the interest rate increases, and it took about 30-days from listing a home to when it closed escrow. Access my longer term chart for Days on Market.

Month	Days to Sale
September '25	79
August '25	80
July '25	77
June '25	74
May '25	72
April '25	72
March '25	74
February '25	76
January '25	78
December '24	73
November '24	68
October '24	69
September '24	68
August '24	68
July '24	63
June '24	63

Distressed Properties

41 was the total for September. I define distressed properties as bank owned homes, auctions, and short sales. They disappear when mortgage companies maintain strict lending policies, don't provide borrowers with risky loans, and homeowners make enough money to pay their mortgages.

Distressed properties have been a non-factor for a long time. Click here for my longer-term chart on Distressed Sales. Here are a couple quick facts about distressed properties:

• they peaked in March of 2009 at 75.9% of total sales

• went under 50% of total sales in March 2012

• went under 25% of total sales in April 2013

• went under 10% in February 2015

• have stayed under 1% since February 2020

Month	Distressed Property Sales
September '25	41
August '25	38
Jul '25	36
June '25	21
May '25	31
April '25	18
March '25	25
February '25	33
January '25	22
December '24	33
November '24	23
October '24	25
September '24	20
August '24	22
July '24	26
June '24	18

Ron Wilczek has been tracking and writing about Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market since 2008. He's been a Realtor since 1999 and the broker of Metro Phoenix Homes since 2009.