March 2026 Regional Phoenix Monthly Housing Report
- Ron Wilczek
- Mar 4
- 6 min read
Updated: Mar 6
NOTE: The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to consider a reduction in the prime lending rate is on March 18th.
This report covers the entire Phoenix Metropolitan Area in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. The other areas of the state, such as Tucson, Flagstaff, Sedona, etc. are not included.
This report is compiled monthly with data taken from the Arizona Regional MLS and compares short-term performance as well as longer-term performance. My reports are factual, and any opinions are stated as mine.
In my opinion, we're still in a fairly strong buyer's market because:
Total home sales have never recovered from the interest-rate-induced market drop in 2022. Sales have been much lower for the last 3-years.
Inventory is hovering at 7-year highs.
There has been a -$16,303 gap between the average listing and sale prices in the last 12-months (February's gap was $17,769).
There are currently 3.8 times more sellers than buyers. The facts: 22,629 listings to start March divided by 5,872 sales in February.
Home Sales
There were 5,423 home sales in February. They were:
+957 higher than January, even with the shorter month (+21.4%)
-60 lower than the 5,483 sales in February 2025 (-1.1%)
96% of the 3 year average of 5,662 monthly sales (2023-2025)
To see a longer term history, click on my Monthly Sales Chart.
As a point of reference, monthly home sales averaged 8,724 in the "12-months before" interest rates started increasing in March of 2022.
Total home sales in the years of 2023 - 2025 averaged just 68,000. The housing industry desperately needs further reductions in mortgage rates to stimulate sales.
In case you're wondering, here are the top five sales years in our history:
104,968 in 2021
104,133 in 2005
100,678 in 2011
100,493 in 2020
99,383 in 2019
Inventory
March 2026 began with 22,629 listings. These listings are:
+2,377 more than February (+11.7%)
+2,182 more than the 20,447 listings in February 2025 (+10.7%)
136% of the 3-year average listings of 16,649 (2023-2025)
Distressed property listings (bank owned homes, auctions, and short sales) are on the rise. March 2026 started with 353 distressed listings compared to the 129 from March 2025 (+173%). A discussion of distressed sales is later in this report.
View my longer-term chart for Housing Inventory.
As a point of reference, monthly home listings averaged 5,093 in the "12-months before" interest rates started increasing in March of 2022.
Higher inventory remains in the favor of buyers who have more choices. Buyers also have more opportunity to negotiate lower prices and obtain seller concessions.
Price-Per Square Foot (PPSF)
+$1.07 more than January
+$3.88 more than February 2025
107% of the 2025 average price of $297.57
PPSF going up in a buyer's market? I've determined a correlation each time price exceeds $300 PSF, and that correlation is the number of home sales over $5 million. The median number of $5 million home sales is 17 per-month. Price tops $300 PSF when those sales reach 24+ in a month. December had 24, January had 33, and February had 39 homes sell over $5 million.
Price-per square foot is an ideal measurement of home values because it takes into consideration the size of sold homes. Median price does not.
Click here for a longer-term Price History.
NOTE: prices vary by neighborhood, so this overall average should not be used for any specific home. Contact me if you want information on your home's value.
Month | Price-Per Square Foot | Median Price |
|---|---|---|
February '26 | $317.73 | $454,900 |
January '26 | $316.66 | $450,000 |
December '25 | $303.45 | $455,000 |
November '25 | $296.89 | $450,000 |
October '25 | $291.65 | $450,000 |
September '25 | $287.49 | $456,500 |
List vs Sales Price
This is an interesting category you may not find any other place. It's a really good indicator of market conditions. In a seller's market, homes will sell for more than list/asking price. Conversely, homes will sell for less than list price in a buyer's market.
As a point of reference, the average home sold for +$10,100 more than list price in April '22 when we were still in a seller's market and before the effect of increased mortgage rates.
This table shows the price range of "$300K - $600K" and "All Sales." I wanted to show both because the range of "$300K - $600K" generally accounts for 60% of all sales. It's a contrast to all sales within the Greater Phoenix Area.
+/- Difference Between List & Sales Price
Month | $300K - $600K | All Sales |
|---|---|---|
Feb '26 | -$7,464 | -$17,769 |
Jan '26 | -$7,881 | -$18,066 |
Dec '25 | -$6,955 | -$17,355 |
Nov '25 | -$6,498 | -$15,540 |
Oct '25 | -$6,952 | -$15,733 |
Sep '25 | -$6,524 | -$15,593 |
Aug '25 | -$7,127 | -$15,924 |
Jul '25 | -$6,994 | -$16,218 |
Jun '25 | -$6,420 | -$18,092 |
May '25 | -$6,162 | -$14,926 |
Apr '25 | -$5,938 | -$14,718 |
Mar '25 | -$6,226 | -$15,778 |
Feb '25 | -$6,587 | -$14,821 |
Jan '25 | -$7,342 | -$18,092 |
Dec '24 | -$6,737 | -$16,731 |
Nov '24 | -$5,399 | -$12,544 |
Oct '24 | -$5,924 | -$13,297 |
Sept '24 | -$5,880 | -$13,101 |
Aug '24 | -$5,906 | -$13,109 |
Jul '24 | -$4,988 | -$13,856 |
Jun '24 | -$5,585 | -$13,745 |
May '24 | -$5,336 | -$12,982 |
Apr '24 | -$5,163 | -$13,350 |
Mar '24 | -$5,486 | -$12,359 |
Feb '24 | -$6,163 | -$12,136 |
Jan '24 | -$7,174 | -$14,844 |
FOMC Interest Rate Changes
*** The next FOMC rate announcement is March 18th.*** There have been no rate reductions since December 2025.
The dramatic change from a seller's market to a buyer's market began when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a division of the Federal Reserve that sets monetary policy, started increasing the prime lending rate to combat inflation. Financial institutions add a margin to the prime rate to set the final interest rate for all loan products, including mortgages.
To date there have been 11 rate increases and 6 decreases. The net affect is a 3.50% increase in the prime rate over a 47 month time span. As a result, mortgage rates reached as high as 7.22% in 2024 and 6.95% in 2025.
I personally feel a reduction in actual mortgage rates to a range of 5.0 - 5.5% by the end of 2026 would be a win for consumers. It would allow more buyers into the market and create opportunities to refinance higher rate mortgage loans.
Here is the history:
.25% in March '22
.50% in May '22(which was the largest since 2000)
.75% in June '22 (the largest increase since 1994)
.75% in July '22
.75% in September '22
.75% in November '22
.50% in December '22
.25% in February '23
.25% in March '23
.25% in May '23
.25% in July '23
-.50% in September '24
-.25% in November '24
-.25% in December '24
.-25% in September 2025
-.25% in October 2025
-.25% in December 2025
Days on Market
This is another indicator of where the market stands. Low days to sale generally happen in a seller's market and higher days generally happen in a buyer's market. We were in a seller's market before the interest rate increases, and it took about 30-days from listing a home to when it closed escrow. Access my longer term chart for Days on Market.
Month | Days to Sale |
|---|---|
February '26 | 83 |
January '26 | 87 |
December '25 | 79 |
November '25 | 78 |
October '25 | 80 |
September '25 | 79 |
Distressed Properties
63 sales was the total for February. I define distressed properties as bank owned homes, auctions, and short sales. They disappear when mortgage companies maintain strict lending policies, don't provide borrowers with risky loans, and homeowners make enough money to pay their mortgages.
Distressed properties have been a non-factor for a long time. Click here for my longer-term chart on Distressed Sales. Here are some quick facts about distressed properties:
they peaked in March of 2009 at 75.9% of total sales
went under 50% of total sales in March 2012
went under 25% of total sales in April 2013
went under 10% in February 2015
have stayed under 1% since February 2020
Month | Distressed Property Sales |
|---|---|
February '26 | 63 |
January '26 | 55 |
December '25 | 59 |
November '25 | 42 |
October | 50 |
September '25 | 41 |
Want to see how Calendar year 2025 compared to 2024? Year-Over-Year comparison.
Ron Wilczek has been tracking and writing about Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market since 2008. He's been a Realtor since 1999 and the broker of Metro Phoenix Homes since 2009. |
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