January 2026 Regional Phoenix Monthly Housing Report

NOTE: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the prime lending rate another .25% on December 10th. January 28th is the next opportunity for a lowering of the rate.

This report covers the entire Phoenix Metropolitan Area in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. The other areas of the state, such as Tucson, Flagstaff, Sedona, and etc., are not included. You can also view my city specific reports.

This report is compiled monthly with data taken from the Arizona Regional MLS and compares short-term performance as well as longer-term performance. My reports are factual, and any opinions are stated as mine.

In my opinion, we're still in a fairly strong buyer's market because home prices are only up 9/10 of 1% from 2024 to 2025, inventory is still very high, home sales have been rather weak, and there was a -$17,355 gap between the average listing and sale price in December.

There are currently 3.3 times more sellers than buyers. The facts: 19,486 listings to start January divided by 5,815 sales in December. In November it was 4.3 and in October it was 4.1. The improvement was due in part to higher than expected year-end sales and fewer people putting their homes on the market during the holidays.

Statistical Categories

Home Sales

There were 5,815 home sales in December, and they were:

• 871 higher than November (+17.6%)

• 638 higher than the 5,177 sales in December 2024 (+12.3%)

• 97% of the 3 year average of 5,984 monthly sales (2022-2024)

To see a longer term history, click on my Monthly Sales Chart.

As a point of reference, monthly home sales averaged 8,724 in the "12-months before" interest rates started increasing in March of 2022.

The good news is that sales are trending up on a year-to-year basis. The housing industry desperately needs further reductions in mortgage rates to stimulate sales.

In case you're wondering, here are the top five sales years in our history:

1. 104,968 in 2021

2. 104,133 in 2005

3. 100,678 in 2011

4. 100,493 in 2020

5. 99,383 in 2019

Try This Versatile Home Search

Inventory

January 2026 began with 19,486 listings. Additionally, the total rise in inventory from the start of 2025 is 1,329 homes. January's 19,486 listings are:

• -1,882 less than December (-8.8%)

• +1,329 more than the 18,157 listings in January 2025 (+7.3%)

• 148% of the 3-year average listings of 13,186 (2022-2024)

• Distressed property listings (bank owned homes, auctions, and short sales) are on the rise. January 2026 started with 299 distressed listings compared to the 125 from January 2025. A discussion of distressed sales is later in this report.

View my longer-term chart for Housing Inventory.

As a point of reference, monthly home listings averaged 5,093 in the "12-months before" interest rates started increasing in March of 2022.

Higher inventory remains in the favor of buyers who have more choices. Buyers also have more opportunity to negotiate lower prices and obtain seller concessions.

Price-Per Square Foot (PPSF)

At $303.45, PPSF is on a 4-month rebound from the year low of $279.40 in August. PPSF in December is:

• +$6.56 more than November

• -$1.36 less than December 2024

• 103% of the 2024 average price of $295.02

• lower than the $316.66 from January 2025

Click here for a longer-term Price History.

Price-per square foot is an ideal measurement of home values because it takes into consideration the size of sold homes. Median price does not.

NOTE: prices vary by neighborhood, so this overall average should not be used for any specific home. Contact me if you want information on your home's value.

Month	Price-Per Square Foot	Median Price
December '25	$303.45	$455,000
November '25	$296.89	$450,000
October '25	$291.65	$450,000
September '25	$287.49	$456,500
August '25	$279.40	$445,000
July '25	$285.88	$445,000

List vs Sales Price

This is an interesting category you might not find any other place. It's a really good indicator of market conditions. In a seller's market, homes will sell for more than list/asking price. Conversely, homes will sell for less than list price in a buyer's market.

As a point of reference, the average home sold for +$10,100 more than list price in April '22 when we were still in a seller's market and before the effect of increased mortgage rates.

This table shows the price range of "$300K - $600K" and "All Sales." I wanted to show both because the range of "$300K - $600K" generally accounts for 60% of all sales. It's a contrast to all sales within the Greater Phoenix Area.

+/- Difference Between List & Sales Price

Month	$300K - $600K	All Sales
Dec '25	-$6,955	-$17,355
Nov '25	-$6,498	-$15,540
Oct '25	-$6,952	-$15,733
Sep '25	-$6,524	-$15,593
Aug '25	-$7,127	-$15,924
Jul '25	-$6,994	-$16,218
Jun '25	-$6,420	-$18,092
May '25	-$6,162	-$14,926
Apr '25	-$5,938	-$14,718
Mar '25	-$6,226	-$15,778
Feb '25	-$6,587	-$14,821
Jan '25	-$7,342	-$18,092
Dec '24	-$6,737	-$16,731
Nov '24	-$5,399	-$12,544
Oct '24	-$5,924	-$13,297
Sept '24	-$5,880	-$13,101
Aug '24	-$5,906	-$13,109
Jul '24	-$4,988	-$13,856
Jun '24	-$5,585	-$13,745
May '24	-$5,336	-$12,982
Apr '24	-$5,163	-$13,350
Mar '24	-$5,486	-$12,359
Feb '24	-$6,163	-$12,136
Jan '24	-$7,174	-$14,844

FOMC Interest Rate Changes

*** The next FOMC rate announcement is January 28th.*** The dramatic change from a seller's market to a buyer's market began when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a division of the Federal Reserve that sets monetary policy, started increasing the prime lending rate to combat inflation. Financial institutions add a margin to the prime rate to set the final interest rate for all loan products, including mortgages.

To date there have been 11 rate increases and 6 decreases. The net affect is a 3.50% increase in the prime rate over a 46 month time span. As a result, mortgage rates reached as high as 7.22% in 2024 and 6.95% in 2025.

I personally feel a reduction in actual mortgage rates to a range of 5.0 - 5.5% in the next 6-12 months would be a win for consumers. It would allow more buyers into the market and create opportunities to refinance higher rate mortgage loans.

Here is the history:

• .25% in March '22

• .50% in May '22(which was the largest since 2000)

• .75% in June '22 (the largest increase since 1994)

• .75% in July '22

• .75% in September '22

• .75% in November '22

• .50% in December '22

• .25% in February '23

• .25% in March '23

• .25% in May '23

• .25% in July '23

• -.50% in September '24

• -.25% in November '24

• -.25% in December '24

• .-25% in September 2025

• -.25% in October 2025

• -.25% in December 2025

Days on Market

This is another indicator of where the market stands. Low days to sale generally happen in a seller's market and higher days generally happen in a buyer's market. We were in a seller's market before the interest rate increases, and it took about 30-days from listing a home to when it closed escrow. Access my longer term chart for Days on Market.

Month	Days to Sale
December '25	79
November '25	78
October '25	80
September '25	79
August '25	80
July '25	77

Distressed Properties

59 sales was the total for December. I define distressed properties as bank owned homes, auctions, and short sales. They disappear when mortgage companies maintain strict lending policies, don't provide borrowers with risky loans, and homeowners make enough money to pay their mortgages.

Distressed properties have been a non-factor for a long time. Click here for my longer-term chart on Distressed Sales. Here are some quick facts about distressed properties:

• they peaked in March of 2009 at 75.9% of total sales

• went under 50% of total sales in March 2012

• went under 25% of total sales in April 2013

• went under 10% in February 2015

• have stayed under 1% since February 2020

Month	Distressed Property Sales
December '25	59
November '25	42
October	50
September '25	41
August '25	38
July '25	36

Ron Wilczek has been tracking and writing about Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market since 2008. He's been a Realtor since 1999 and the broker of Metro Phoenix Homes since 2009.